Today's Take
China's blocking of the Meta-Manus deal signals technology decoupling is accelerating from voluntary coordination to forced bifurcation, while Fed leadership transitions suggest a return to policy orthodoxy just as geopolitical energy shocks are making inflation structural rather than transitory. Institutions betting on near-term rate cuts face a double-squeeze: hawkish Fed nominees plus persistent commodity-driven CPI, which compresses risk premiums and widens spreads between defensive (energy, gold, healthcare) and growth equities through 2026.
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